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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 6th, 2023

Erik Sepper • December 6, 2023

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

December 6, 2023


The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.


The global economy continues to slow and inflation has eased further. In the United States, growth has been stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending, but is likely to weaken in the months ahead as past policy rate increases work their way through the economy. Growth in the euro area has weakened and, combined with lower energy prices, this has reduced inflationary pressures. Oil prices are about $10-per-barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have also eased, with long-term interest rates unwinding some of the sharp increases seen earlier in the autumn. The US dollar has weakened against most currencies, including Canada’s.


In Canada, economic growth stalled through the middle quarters of 2023. Real GDP contracted at a rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, following growth of 1.4% in the second quarter. Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year. Exports and inventory adjustment subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter, while government spending and new home construction provided a boost. The labour market continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth, job vacancies have declined further, and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Even so, wages are still rising by 4-5%. Overall, these data and indicators for the fourth quarter suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.


The slowdown in the economy is reducing inflationary pressures in a broadening range of goods and services prices. Combined with the drop in gasoline prices, this contributed to the easing of CPI inflation to 3.1% in October. However, shelter price inflation has picked up, reflecting faster growth in rent and other housing costs along with the continued contribution from elevated mortgage interest costs. In recent months, the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.


With further signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed. Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 24, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.


ERIK SEPPER 
MORTGAGE AGENT

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The Home Buying Process Explained

By Erik Sepper • March 19, 2025
If you’re in the early stages of planning to buy either your first home or your next home, you’ve come to the right place! Even if you’ve been through it before, the home buying process can be daunting, but it doesn’t have to be when you have the right people on your side! The purpose of this article is to share a high-level view of the home buying process. Obviously, the finer details can be addressed once you’ve submitted an application for pre-approval. But for now, here are some of the answers to general questions you may have as you work through your early preparations. Are you credit-worthy? Having an established credit profile is essential when applying for a mortgage. For your credit to be considered established, you’ll want to have a minimum of two trade lines (credit cards, loans, or lines of credit) with a minimum limit of $2500, reporting for a period of at least two years. From there, you’ll want to make sure that your debt repayment is as close to flawless as possible. Think of it this way: Why would a lender want to lend you money if you don’t have a history of timely repayment on the loans you already have? Making your payments on time, as agreed, is crucial. We all know, however, that mistakes can happen and payments might get missed. If that's the case, it’s best to catch up as quickly as possible! Late payments only register on your credit report if you're past due by 30 days. How will you make your mortgage payments? When providing you with a mortgage, lenders are trusting you with a lot of money. They'll want to feel really good about your ability to pay that money back, over an agreed period of time, with interest. The more stable your employment, the better chances you have of securing mortgage financing. Typically, you’ll want to be employed in a permanent position or have your income averaged over a period of two years. If you’re self-employed, expect to provide a lot more documentation to substantiate your income. How much skin do you have in the game? If you're borrowing money to buy a home, you’re going to have to bring some money to the table. The best down payment comes from accumulating your own funds supported by documents proving a 90-day history in your bank account. Other down payment sources, such as a gift from a family member or proceeds from another property sale, are completely acceptable. In Canada, 5% down is the minimum requirement. However, depending on the purchase price, it might be more. Also, you need to be aware that you will likely have to prove access to at least 1.5% of the purchase price to be allocated for closing costs. How much can you afford? Here’s the thing. What you can afford on paper and what you can afford in real life are often very different amounts. Just because you feel you can afford the proposed mortgage payments, know that you will have to substantiate everything through documentation. The amount you actually qualify to borrow is based on many factors, certainly too many to list in an article designed to provide you with an overview of the home buying process. However, with that said, it’s never too early in the home buying process to seek professional advice. Our services come at no cost to you; it would be our pleasure to help. Working with an independent mortgage professional will allow you to assess your credit-worthiness, provide insight on how a lender will view your income, help you plan for a down payment, and nail down exactly how much you can afford to borrow. And if you need help putting together a plan to improve your financial situation, we can do that too. If you’d like to discuss your financial situation and put together a plan to secure mortgage financing, please get in touch!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Mar 12th, 2025

By Erik Sepper • March 12, 2025
Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 2¾% FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario March 12, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape. After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. China’s economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies. Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed. Employment growth strengthened in November through January and the unemployment rate declined to 6.6%. In February, job growth stalled. While past interest rate cuts have boosted demand for labour in recent months, there are warning signs that heightened trade tensions could disrupt the recovery in the jobs market. Meanwhile, wage growth has shown signs of moderation. Inflation remains close to the 2% target. The temporary suspension of the GST/HST lowered some consumer prices, but January’s CPI was slightly firmer than expected at 1.9%. Inflation is expected to increase to about 2½% in March with the end of the tax break. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation remain above 2%, mainly because of the persistence of shelter price inflation. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in light of fears about the impact of tariffs on prices. While economic growth has come in stronger than expected, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats is restraining consumers’ spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this background, and with inflation close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by a further 25 basis points. Monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war. What it can and must do is ensure that higher prices do not lead to ongoing inflation. Governing Council will be carefully assessing the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. The Council will also be closely monitoring inflation expectations. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 16, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

What Are GDS/TDS Ratios Anyways?

By Erik Sepper • March 5, 2025
One of the major qualifiers lenders look at when considering your application for mortgage financing is your debt service ratios. Now, before we get started, if you prefer to have someone walk through these calculations with you, assess your financial situation, and let you know exactly where you stand, let’s connect. There is no use in dusting off the calculator and running the numbers yourself when we can do it for you! However, if you’re someone who likes to know the nitty-gritty of how things work instead of simply accepting that's just the way it is, this article is for you. But be warned, there are a lot of mortgage words and some math ahead; with that out of the way, let’s get started! “Debt servicing” is the measure of your ability to meet all of your financial obligations. There are two ratios that lenders examine to determine whether you can debt service a mortgage. The first is called the “gross debt service” ratio, or GDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income that covers your housing costs. The second is called the “total debt service” ratio, or TDS, which is the percentage of your monthly household income covering your housing costs and all your other debts. GDS is your income compared to the cost of financing the mortgage, including your proposed mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes, and heat (PITH), plus a percentage of your condo fees (if applicable). Here’s how to calculate your GDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat / Gross Annual Income Your TDS is your income compared to your GDS plus the payments made to service any existing debts. Debts include car loans, line of credit, credit card payments, support payments, student loans, and anywhere else you’re contractually obligated to make payments. Here’s how to calculate your TDS. Principal + Interest + Taxes + Heat + Other Debts / Gross Annual Income With the calculations for those ratios in place, the next step is to understand that each lender has guidelines that outline a maximum GDS/TDS. Exceeding these guidelines will result in your mortgage application being declined, so the lower your GDS/TDS, the better. If you don’t have any outstanding debts, your GDS and TDS will be the same number. This is a good thing! The maximum ratios vary for conventional mortgage financing based on the lender and mortgage product being offered. However, if your mortgage is high ratio and mortgage default insurance is required, the maximum GDS is 39% with a maximum TDS of 44%. So how does this play out in real life? Well, let’s say you’re currently looking to purchase a property with a payment of $1700/mth (PITH), and your total annual household income is $90,000 ($7500/mth). The calculations would be $1700 divided by $7500, which equals 0.227, giving you a gross debt service ratio of 22.7%. A point of clarity here. When calculating the principal and interest portion of the payment, the Government of Canada has instituted a stress test. It requires you to qualify using the government's qualifying rate (which is higher), not the actual contract rate. This is true for both fixed and variable rate mortgages. Now let’s continue with the scenario. Let’s say that in addition to the payments required to service the property, you have a car payment of $300/mth, child support payments of $500/mth, and between your credit cards and line of credit, you’re responsible for another $700/mth. In total, you pay $1500/mth. So when you add in the $1700/mth PITH, you arrive at a total of $3200/mth for all of your financial obligations. $3200 divided by $7500 equals 0.427, giving you a total debt service ratio of 42.7%. Here’s where it gets interesting. Based on your GDS alone, you can easily afford the property. But when you factor in all your other expenses, the TDS exceeds the allowable limit of 42% (for an insured mortgage anyway). So why does this matter? Well, as it stands, you wouldn’t qualify for the mortgage, even though you are likely paying more than $1700/mth in rent. So then, to qualify, it might be as simple as shuffling some of your debt to lower payments. Or maybe you have 10% of the purchase price saved for a downpayment, changing the mortgage structure to 5% down and using the additional 5% to pay out a portion of your debt might be the difference you need to bring it all together. Here’s the thing, as your actual financial situation is most likely different than the one above, working with an independent mortgage professional is the best way to give yourself options. Don’t do this alone. Your best plan is to seek and rely on the advice provided by an experienced independent mortgage professional. While you might secure a handful of mortgages over your lifetime, we do this every day with people just like you. It’s never too early to start the conversation about mortgage qualification. Going over your application and assessing your debt service ratios in detail beforehand gives you the time needed to make the financial moves necessary to put yourself in the best financial position. So if you find yourself questioning what you can afford or if you want to discuss your GDS/TDS ratios to understand the mortgage process a little better, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you, we can get a preapproval started right away.
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